David Jefferies' home pages, and background to this book.
The main title page, contents, and introduction.
ENGINEERING FOR DEVELOPMENT
(First Draft)
E J Jefferies
March 1969
CONTENTS
PART 1 THE WORLD DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
Chapter
1 Introduction
Chapter
2 Closing the Gap
Chapter
3 Resistance to Change
Chapter
4 International Technical Assistance
PART II AN ENGINEERING APPROACH TO A PLAN FOR A COUNTRY
Chapter
5 Outline of the Approach
Chapter
6 Setting the Problem
Chapter
7 Basic, Concepts, Terms and Definitions
Chapter
8 Background Data Available
Chapter
9 The Starting Point for a Case Study
Chapter
10 Preliminary Calculations
Chapter
11 Patterns of Economic Growth
Chapter
12 Development Plan for Year 1
Chapter
13 Development Plan for Year 2
Chapter
14 Development Plan for Year 3
Chapter
15 Review of Changes During the Three Years
Chapter
16 The Control of Development
Chapter
17 Financing the Development
PART III THE
IMPLICATIONS OF RAPID GROWTH
Chapter
18 Economic Growth and Technological Changes in Rural Communities
Chapter
19 The Influence of Agriculture on Industrial Development
Chapter
20 The Role of Manufacturing Industry
Chapter
21 The Contribution of Industrial Engineering to a Solution
PART IV DESIGNING FOR BALANCE IN DEVELOPMENT
Chapter
22 The Prediction of New Manufacturing Capacity Requirements by
Product Group
Chapter
23 The Productivity of Labour
Chapter
24 The Growth of Productivity
Chapter
25 The Calculation of Appropriate Levels of Productivity in New
Plants
CHAPTER 6
SETTING THE PROBLEM
2.1 The mechanisms and difficulties of very rapid economic growth cannot be examined usefully by generalisations or in the abstract. We need to be able to frame our discussions in the form of calculations and estimates against a background of concrete facts and figures. But at the same time we must keep in mind that growth of the standard of living is not in the ultimate analysis merely a matter of juggling with the facts and figures of economics; it arises primarily from the needs, habits and desires of people and from their mental and physical energy and skill. The facts and figures of economics are a post factor expression of the resultant of all the activities of the individuals involved.
2.2 The traditional method used by economists for making projections into the future is based on various series of historical economic data for a specific country, but this cannot be used where a sudden and very large increase in economic activity is planned, as in the problem we have set out to examine. Our whole objective is to find a way of inducing a discontinuity into the historical series. However, we need to start of with some frame of reference indicating the possible outlines of the economy after the desired expansion has taken place. Fortunately a basis for such a projection is provided by the cross-section analysis of the economies of a large number of developing countries made within the Project for Quantitative Research in Economic Development carried out in Stanford University around 1959 under the auspices of the Ford Foundation and reported by Hollis B Chenery in the American Economic Review of September 1960, pages 624-654. The data presented makes it possible to estimate probably increases in various activities in terms of the total level of economic activity. Such estimate, added on to the known present pattern of economic activity will enable us to form a rational picture in economic terms of the probable pattern of the activity at any given future time, as a starting point for planning in further detail. The picture we shall arrive at will maintain a balance between outputs of the different sectors which is known to have been possible in the past in countries of the type under review. Its balance will not be derived from assumptions as to the performance of investment (capital-output ratios) nor as to the proportion of GDP required as capital formation. Instead, the overall picture will be used as a basis for estimating firstly how much capital formation will be needed to prevent demand running ahead of output; and secondly what design criteria must be adopted when programming new investments to ensure that the available capital will generate both sufficient output and sufficient employment. This economic picture will have to be translated at each stage back into terms of social and personal activity to get a true picture of the course of development.
2.3 It must be emphasised that this cross-section data is reported in the standard terms of the macro-economist as aggregates of the magnitudes of the economic outcomes of a large number of individual activities. The aggregation eliminates differences in economic performance of the individual activities in a group or sector. We shall find, when we come to discuss mechanisms for fostering and steering innovations which will result in economic development, that the data we really need relates to the micro-economies of individual activities at both ends of the scale remote from the aggregated averages. This is not often reported, unfortunately, since it would be too bulky. However a certain amount of published aggregate data includes statements of variance, which can be of use.
2.4 The standard form of economic analysis ignores social effects of the economic activities and gives no clues to the effects of economic activities of the structure and attitudes of the society as a whole. Information on these will have to be sought elsewhere in order to determine whether changes can be induced which will reinforce the economic changes we are planning, or at least will not negate them.
2.5 Before we can formulate a problem in terms which may be manipulative with prospects of arriving at a solution, we need to clarify a number of basic definitions and also to see what data are likely to be available for manipulation. Admittedly the data will be both incomplete and inaccurate in the present state of development of national and international economic, industrial, commercial and social statistical services but this is no excuse for not attempting a solution.
2.6 In the next chapter we will examine these matters in outline, as a basis for setting up a hypothetical case study to illustrate the methodology which can be applied and the type of solution likely to result.