ENGINEERING FOR DEVELOPMENT

(First Draft)

E J Jefferies

March 1969

CONTENTS

PART 1 THE WORLD DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Closing the Gap
Chapter 3 Resistance to Change
Chapter 4 International Technical Assistance

PART II AN ENGINEERING APPROACH TO A PLAN FOR A COUNTRY

Chapter 5 Outline of the Approach
Chapter 6 Setting the Problem
Chapter 7 Basic, Concepts, Terms and Definitions
Chapter 8 Background Data Available
Chapter 9 The Starting Point for a Case Study
Chapter 10 Preliminary Calculations
Chapter 11 Patterns of Economic Growth
Chapter 12 Development Plan for Year 1
Chapter 13 Development Plan for Year 2
Chapter 14 Development Plan for Year 3
Chapter 15 Review of Changes During the Three Years
Chapter 16 The Control of Development
Chapter 17 Financing the Development

PART III THE IMPLICATIONS OF RAPID GROWTH

Chapter 18 Economic Growth and Technological Changes in Rural Communities
Chapter 19 The Influence of Agriculture on Industrial Development
Chapter 20 The Role of Manufacturing Industry
Chapter 21 The Contribution of Industrial Engineering to a Solution

PART IV DESIGNING FOR BALANCE IN DEVELOPMENT

Chapter 22 The Prediction of New Manufacturing Capacity Requirements by Product Group
Chapter 23 The Productivity of Labour
Chapter 24 The Growth of Productivity
Chapter 25 The Calculation of Appropriate Levels of Productivity in New Plants

CHAPTER 21

THE CONTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

TO A SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM

It has been suggested "the rise in labour productivity should not outstrip the growth of demand, ... since if labour productivity goes up more than demand in any period, then fewer workers will be needed"¹¹.

The difficulty of the industrial engineer in applying this criterion in planning new production capacity lies in the interpretation of the word "demand" and in finding a means of estimating the probable "growth of demand" for the products in question during the estimated economic life of the plant he proposes to install, i.e. over the next five to fifteen years.

As pointed out above, increased demand is not necessarily to be equated with or satisfied entirely by increased local production. Imports and exports have to be allowed for. Thus the industrial designer needs some formula connecting increased overall purchasing power with increased consumption of specific products, which at the same time allows for the probable increase in foreign trade in these products, especially imports.

The industrial engineer is skilled in the manipulation of the internal economics of a manufacturing operation: its production costs; profitability; consumption of raw materials, labour, services and capital etc. Given an adequate methodology, he could easily extend his analysis to indicate how the operation planned will contribute to the overall economy of the country, especially in the conservation of scarce resources such as skilled labour and capital; in the development of national income; and in the avoidance of massive unemployment.

During the last two decades considerable thought has been given by economists to the "explanation" of the sectoral growth of an economy. Large amounts of statistical data have been accumulated and subjected to various forms of analysis. Concrete and usable results from these studies are urgently needed by industrial engineers for guidance in their design work. Even if the conclusions reached are as yet rather imprecise and tentative, an additional guideline can now be provided for making investment decisions, and some of the guess work and intuition can be eliminated when relating industrial development to the progress of the economy as a whole.