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The rescaled adjusted range statistic

The rescaled adjusted range statistic, , is calculated for a selection of subsets of the time series , starting at n and of size k+1 [Mandelbrot 1969]. The adjusted range has the following physical interpretation. Suppose the time series represents the amounts of water per time unit flowing into a reservoir. Furthermore, water flows out of the reservoir at a constant rate, this rate being just such that the reservoir contains the same amount of water at the n+k-th time unit as at the n-th time unit. Then is the minimum capacity of the reservoir such that it will not overflow in the period n to n+k inclusive.

The calculation of proceeds as follows. Given n and k, the mean

and standard deviation

are calculated. Then,

is found. The rescaled adjusted range is then just . A single such calculation results in one point on a graph of against . By varying n and k we obtain a pox plot of . The size k is varied from 10 to about in 5,000 logarithmically-spaced steps (except for small k, where several calculations of are made for the same k and different n). The starting value n is chosen randomly in the range 1 to N-k. Finally, linear regression is used to fit a straight line to the plot, the slope of this line being an estimate of H.



Jonathan Deane, and David Jefferies
Mon Jun 3 13:27:09 BST 1996